Debunking the Housing Market Crash Narrative

Mar 1, 2023

By Vanessa Saunders MBA MIMC CEO Global Property Systems

In a recent opinion piece on Inman News, Mike DelPrete, a strategic advisor and global expert in real estate tech, offers his perspective on the current state of the US housing market. While media headlines have been predicting a crash in the market, DelPrete argues that the reality is more nuanced and that comparisons to the outsized numbers of 2021 may be amplifying the scale of the decline. DelPrete presents two key charts in his article that provide a more contextualized view of the market and suggests that while the last six months have been challenging, the market may not be as bleak as some news headlines suggest. It’s important to note that the article is an opinion piece and reflects the author’s analysis and interpretation of the data, which may not be shared by all experts or the entire real estate industry.

Media headlines are focused on a crashing U.S. real estate market, but the truth is more nuanced with less hyperbole.

Context matters: The reality is that the market is down, but simple comparisons to a sky-high 2021 are amplifying the scale of the decline.

  • Arm yourself with the right data — two key charts — to understand and contextualize this dynamic market.

Monthly home sales are collected and published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), but historical data beyond 2021 is not easily accessible and rarely included in analyses.

With help from NAR, I’m publishing a direct link to a live chart: U.S. Existing Home Sales.

Media headlines predicting a crash in the US housing market may be based on limited data that doesn’t fully account for the unique circumstances of 2021. While the market is down, simple comparisons to last year’s record-breaking sales may amplify the scale of the decline. DelPrete’s article suggests that two key charts can help provide a more nuanced understanding of the current market: the US Existing Home Sales chart, which shows that while sales have declined in the second half of 2022, the deviation from historical averages is not as extreme as the drop from last year, and the Mortgage Demand Index, which indicates that purchase demand for mortgage loans is at record lows but has seen a recent uptick corresponding to dropping mortgage rates. The article concludes that the last six months of 2022 have been challenging, and it seems likely that low volumes will continue well into 2023, but the market is not as bleak as the news headlines may suggest.

Thinking of buying a new home or selling your current home?  Reach out to us at Global Property Systems to learn more about how we can help.


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